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All\ \ 187

Temperature

High Temp\ \ 117 Low Temp\ \ 19

Precipitation\ \ 5 Global\ \ 9 Tornadoes\ \ 2 Hurricanes\ \ 3 Earthquakes\ \ 15 Volcanoes\ \ 2 Pandemics\ \ 12

Weather

Globe

Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14

27°CSeoul26°CShanghai31°CHong Kong≤27°CBeijing22°CLondon82-83°FSeattle29°CTel Aviv15°CAuckland29°CTaipei26°CParis31°CShenzhen26°CTokyo≤21°CAnkara34°CMadrid27°CWuhan32°CSingapore25°CMunich27°CMoscow27°CChongqing31°CMilan20°CWarsaw36°CLucknow88-89°FMiami20°CIstanbul92-93°FAtlanta32°CChengdu90-91°FNew York City29°CToronto84-85°FChicago14°CBuenos Aires22°CSão Paulo

Temperature

1309060300-40

Temperature

Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

27°C

38%

Yes No

26°C

27%

Yes No

NEW

·

$77KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

26°C

50%

Yes No

27°C

32%

Yes No

NEW

·

$51KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

31°C

38%

Yes No

30°C

32%

Yes No

NEW

·

$47KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Beijing on June 13?

27°C or below

71%

Yes No

28°C

17%

Yes No

NEW

·

$43KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in London on June 13?

22°C

39%

Yes No

23°C

36%

Yes No

NEW

·

$38KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Seattle on June 13?

82-83°F

32%

Yes No

84-85°F

25%

Yes No

NEW

·

$25KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on June 13?

29°C

53%

Yes No

30°C

25%

Yes No

NEW

·

$25KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Wellington on June 13?

15°C

61%

Yes No

14°C

27%

Yes No

NEW

·

$23KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Taipei on June 13?

29°C

37%

Yes No

30°C

26%

Yes No

NEW

·

$23KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Paris on June 13?

26°C

42%

Yes No

27°C

32%

Yes No

NEW

·

$22KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 13?

31°C

32%

Yes No

32°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

·

$21KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 13?

31°C

38%

Yes No

30°C

36%

Yes No

NEW

·

$21KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 13?

26°C

38%

Yes No

27°C

36%

Yes No

NEW

·

$19KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Ankara on June 13?

21°C or below

49%

Yes No

22°C

30%

Yes No

NEW

·

$19KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 13?

76-77°F

28%

Yes No

74-75°F

22%

Yes No

NEW

·

$18KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Madrid on June 13?

34°C

55%

Yes No

35°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

·

$18KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Wuhan on June 13?

27°C

39%

Yes No

26°C

25%

Yes No

NEW

·

$18KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on June 13?

72-73°F

45%

Yes No

70-71°F

29%

Yes No

NEW

·

$17KVol.

Daily

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

26°C

78%

Yes No

27°C

12%

Yes No

NEW

·

$17KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Singapore on June 13?

32°C

49%

Yes No

31°C

31%

Yes No

NEW

·

$15KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Munich on June 13?

25°C

43%

Yes No

24°C

25%

Yes No

NEW

·

$15KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Moscow on June 13?

27°C

35%

Yes No

28°C

31%

Yes No

NEW

·

$14KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Denver on June 13?

78-79°F

27%

Yes No

80-81°F

27%

Yes No

NEW

·

$14KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 13?

27°C

36%

Yes No

28°C

36%

Yes No

NEW

·

$13KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Milan on June 13?

31°C

39%

Yes No

32°C

35%

Yes No

NEW

·

$12KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 13?

20°C

38%

Yes No

21°C

37%

Yes No

NEW

·

$12KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Cape Town on June 13?

17°C

44%

Yes No

16°C

36%

Yes No

NEW

·

$11KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Lucknow on June 13?

36°C

46%

Yes No

37°C

27%

Yes No

NEW

·

$11KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Miami on June 13?

88-89°F

51%

Yes No

90-91°F

42%

Yes No

NEW

·

$11KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on June 13?

33°C

45%

Yes No

32°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

·

$10KVol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Qingdao on June 13?

31°C or higher

72%

Yes No

30°C

24%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 13?

20°C

42%

Yes No

19°C

21%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Atlanta on June 13?

92-93°F

48%

Yes No

90-91°F

27%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Busan on June 13?

28°C

42%

Yes No

29°C

32%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Helsinki on June 13?

17°C

38%

Yes No

16°C

26%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 13?

32°C

33%

Yes No

31°C

31%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in NYC on June 13?

90-91°F

39%

Yes No

88-89°F

35%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on June 13?

17°C

55%

Yes No

18°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Jeddah on June 13?

38°C

34%

Yes No

39°C

29%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Karachi on June 13?

35°C

48%

Yes No

36°C

37%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Toronto on June 13?

29°C

43%

Yes No

28°C

29%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 13?

19°C

84%

Yes No

18°C

25%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Chicago on June 13?

84-85°F

45%

Yes No

86-87°F

22%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

17°C

70%

Yes No

16°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on June 13?

14°C

44%

Yes No

13°C

34%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Houston on June 13?

90-91°F

41%

Yes No

92-93°F

25%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 13?

22°C

37%

Yes No

21°C

33%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Manila on June 13?

33°C

38%

Yes No

34°C

38%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Austin on June 13?

92-93°F

45%

Yes No

90-91°F

33%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Dallas on June 13?

94-95°F

35%

Yes No

92-93°F

34%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

23°C

39%

Yes No

22°C

39%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Miami on June 13?

78-79°F

50%

Yes No

76-77°F

34%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Paris on June 13?

15°C

39%

Yes No

14°C

16%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Mexico City on June 13?

24°C

43%

Yes No

23°C

30%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in NYC on June 13?

70-71°F

29%

Yes No

72-73°F

34%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in London on June 13?

13°C

40%

Yes No

14°C

41%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Panama City on June 13?

32°C

39%

Yes No

33°C

38%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Precipitation

Precipitation in Seattle in June?

1-1.5"

43%

Yes No

1.5-2"

49%

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

Precipitation in Hong Kong in June?

500mm+

27%

Yes No

475-500mm

44%

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

Precipitation in London in June?

50-60mm

28%

Yes No

60-70mm

8%

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

Precipitation in Seoul in June?

120-130mm

Yes No

110-120mm

21%

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

Precipitation in NYC in June?

<2"

32%

Yes No

3-4"

31%

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

Global

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

2

63%

Yes No

1

29%

Yes No

$3MVol.

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

31%

chance

Yes No

$332KVol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

23%

chance

Yes No

$223KVol.

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

83%

chance

Yes No

$141KVol.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

10%

chance

Yes No

$95KVol.

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

<4m sq km

48%

Yes No

4.0-4.2m sq km

26%

Yes No

$54KVol.

2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2nd hottest

90%

Yes No

1st hottest

5%

Yes No

$40KVol.

Monthly

June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.15–1.19ºC

48%

Yes No

1.10–1.14ºC

46%

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.10–1.14ºC

45%

Yes No

1.20–1.24ºC

44%

Yes No

NEW

Tornadoes

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+

83%

Yes No

1200–1249

9%

Yes No

$73KVol.

How many Tornadoes in the US in July?

100–129

38%

Yes No

<100

27%

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

Hurricanes

31%

chance

$332KVol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

23%

chance

Yes No

$223KVol.

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes No

$136KVol.

Earthquakes

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16

35%

Yes No

11–13

31%

Yes No

$1MVol.

Daily

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0

67%

Yes No

1

20%

Yes No

$1MVol.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes No

$639KVol.

31%

chance

$332KVol.

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

7%

chance

Yes No

$225KVol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

23%

chance

Yes No

$223KVol.

11%

chance

$136KVol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

≤8

48%

Yes No

9

32%

Yes No

$106KVol.

Daily

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

10%

chance

$95KVol.

Megaquake by June 30?

6%

chance

Yes No

$79KVol.

Daily

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?

0

67%

Yes No

1

27%

Yes No

$20KVol.

Weekly

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes No

$12KVol.

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 15 - June 21?

9

37%

Yes No

>9

27%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 15 - June 21?

0

42%

Yes No

1

41%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?

>9

99%

Yes No

9

<1%

Yes No

$35KVol.

Weekly

Volcanoes

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

67%

20%

$1MVol.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

10%

chance

$95KVol.

Pandemics

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

4%

chance

Yes No

$15MVol.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑3k

84%

Yes No

↑4k

36%

Yes No

$8MVol.

Monthly

New pandemic in 2026?

10%

chance

Yes No

$725KVol.

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

8%

chance

Yes No

$456KVol.

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes No

$241KVol.

Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

6%

chance

Yes No

$120KVol.

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

24%

chance

Yes No

$72KVol.

Measles cases in U.S. by June 30?

2150

79%

Yes No

2200

12%

Yes No

$37KVol.

Monthly

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

6%

chance

Yes No

$15KVol.

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

South Sudan

67%

Yes No

Rwanda

36%

Yes No

$15KVol.

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

December 31

74%

Yes No

October 31

64%

Yes No

NEW

Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

December 31

75%

Yes No

August 30

73%

Yes No

NEW

Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?27°C·Yes

Buy

Sell

Market

Yes01234567890123456789¢No01234567890123456789¢

Amount

$

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Trade

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About Weather Predictions & Odds

Weather is one of the few subjects where almost everyone has an opinion and nature keeps an exact, public scorecard. Polymarket’s Weather category turns that scorecard into tradable markets, letting people put real money behind their read of the atmosphere, the oceans, and the planet beneath us. Each market asks one clear question, settles on official data, and pays $1 per winning share.

Markets span daily city temperatures, monthly precipitation totals, hurricane landfalls, tornado counts, earthquake magnitudes, volcanic eruptions, global temperature records, and pandemic risk. Prices update continuously as traders react to new forecasts, satellite data, and breaking developments. A share trading at 72¢ implies roughly a 72% probability that the stated outcome will occur.

Unlike traditional weather forecasts, which are point estimates from a single model or ensemble, prediction markets aggregate the views of many independent participants who are financially accountable for their positions. That structure can surface information that no single forecaster captures alone.

Temperature

Temperature markets cover daily high and low readings for major cities around the world. Traders price whether a city’s official high will reach a given threshold on a specific date, drawing on NWS forecasts, ensemble model output, and local pattern recognition. These markets settle on the reading reported by the designated official weather station, so there is no ambiguity about the result.

Because temperature markets resolve daily, they offer a fast feedback loop that rewards accuracy and punishes overconfidence. Traders who consistently read upper-air patterns, urban heat island effects, and model biases can build an edge over the crowd.

Precipitation

Precipitation markets ask whether a city or region will record a measurable amount of rain, snow, or mixed precipitation within a defined window. Settlement relies on official gauge readings from national weather services, ensuring a clear, verifiable outcome.

Pricing precipitation is notoriously difficult—small shifts in a storm’s track can mean the difference between a soaking and a miss. Prediction markets let traders express that uncertainty as a probability, blending radar nowcasts, convective-scale models, and ground-truth intuition into a single price.

Global

Global markets focus on large-scale climate benchmarks: whether a given month or year will rank as the hottest on record, whether global mean surface temperature will exceed a threshold, or whether key indices like El Niño Southern Oscillation will hit specified levels. These markets settle on data published by agencies like NOAA, NASA GISS, or the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Because global temperature data is released with a lag, these markets tend to have longer time horizons and attract traders who follow satellite reanalysis, ocean heat content, and radiative forcing trends. Prices provide a real-time consensus on where the planet’s climate is heading.

Tornadoes

Tornado markets price the likelihood of significant tornado activity within a defined region and time window. Settlement typically follows Storm Prediction Center reports, which log confirmed tornadoes by date, location, and EF-scale rating.

Tornado forecasting is one of the hardest problems in meteorology—even the best convective outlooks carry wide uncertainty beyond a few hours. Prediction market prices can aggregate signals from mesoscale models, observed instability parameters, and pattern-matching with historical analogs, offering a crowd-sourced probability that updates as storm environments evolve.

Hurricanes

Hurricane markets cover seasonal storm counts, individual storm landfalls, peak intensity, and landfall locations. Settlement sources include the National Hurricane Center’s official advisories and post-season best-track data.

These markets tend to see heavy trading during active hurricane seasons, especially when a named storm is approaching land. Traders weigh sea-surface temperatures, wind shear, steering-level flow, and model consensus to price landfall odds in real time—sometimes days before official forecasts converge.

Earthquakes

Earthquake markets ask whether a seismic event of a given magnitude will occur within a specified region and time frame. Settlement relies on authoritative catalogs such as the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, which reports magnitude, depth, and location for every significant event worldwide.

Because earthquakes are inherently unpredictable on short time scales, these markets reflect base-rate seismicity, aftershock sequences, and swarm activity rather than deterministic forecasts. Prices express the market’s collective estimate of how likely a significant quake is, informed by historical recurrence intervals and current tectonic stress indicators.

Volcanoes

Volcano markets price the likelihood of eruptions, significant ash emissions, or aviation-alert-level changes at monitored volcanoes. Settlement is based on reports from volcano observatories and the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program.

Volcanic activity is episodic and often preceded by observable precursors—seismic swarms, ground deformation, gas emissions—that traders can track through public monitoring data. Markets let participants express probabilistic views on escalation timelines that traditional alert levels, which are categorical, cannot capture.

Pandemics

Pandemic markets cover the probability of novel pathogen outbreaks, WHO emergency declarations, case-count thresholds, and policy responses such as travel restrictions or vaccine approvals. Settlement follows official data from the WHO, national health agencies, or peer-reviewed surveillance networks.

These markets sit at the intersection of epidemiology, public policy, and crowd intelligence. Traders weigh wastewater surveillance data, genomic sequencing reports, zoonotic spillover risk, and institutional response capacity. Because pandemic risk is tail-heavy and politically sensitive, market prices can provide an unfiltered, real-time gauge of perceived outbreak severity that polls and expert panels may be slower to reflect.

Read more

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where users trade on the real-world outcomes of events across Weather and many other topics. Prices are quoted from 0 to 100 cents and reflect the implied probability that an event will occur. Because traders put real money behind their views, Polymarket odds represent a real-time, skin-in-the-game consensus, often referred to as the "wisdom of the crowd."

What is a Weather prediction market?

A Weather prediction market lets users trade Yes or No shares on a specific question tied to Weather-related events, such as "Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?". Each share pays out $1 if the outcome resolves in its favor, and $0 if it does not. The current share price, for example, 68% on "92-93°F", reflects the market's implied probability for that outcome at any given moment.

What topics can I trade on in the Weather category?

The Weather category hosts 186 markets covering a wide range of subjects. Popular subcategories include Temperature, Earthquakes, and Pandemics, each with its own dedicated page showing live odds, trading volume, and active markets. You can browse the full list of Weather subcategories from the left-side navigation on the Weather page.

How do Weather odds on Polymarket work?

Every Weather market on Polymarket has outcomes priced between 0¢ and 100¢. That price is the implied probability of the outcome occurring. For example, if "92-93°F" is trading at 68% in "Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?", traders are collectively pricing in roughly that probability. Prices update continuously as new information, data releases, and events move trader sentiment.

Which Weather markets are most active right now?

Activity is constantly shifting, but you can sort the page by 24-hour volume to see where trading is concentrated. Currently, "Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?" is among the most actively traded markets on the Weather page, alongside other high-volume markets like "Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?" and "Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?".

How are Weather prediction markets resolved?

Each Weather market has a clearly defined resolution source and criteria published on the market page. When the event concludes, for example, when a result is officially reported, a deadline passes, or an authoritative source confirms the outcome, the market resolves and winning shares pay out $1 each. Markets in categories such as Elections, Economy, and Geopolitics typically rely on official government, regulatory, or primary-source reporting for resolution.

Why do Weather odds change so often?

Weather markets respond in real time to news, announcements, data releases, and policy shifts. A single development, such as a new poll, economic indicator, court ruling, or geopolitical event, can materially change the implied probability of an outcome. Looking at markets like "Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?", price movements reflect traders continuously updating their views as fresh information arrives.

How many Weather markets are on Polymarket?

Polymarket currently lists 186 markets in the Weather category. The left-side navigation shows live market counts for each available subcategory so you can quickly see where coverage is deepest.

Can I trade on future Weather events before they happen?

Yes. Most Weather markets are designed to let users trade well ahead of the underlying event, from short-horizon weekly markets to long-dated markets covering outcomes months or years away. Examples currently listed include "Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?" and "Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?", which let traders take positions as new information emerges over the life of the market.

Are Polymarket's Weather odds more accurate than polls or forecasts?

Prediction markets and traditional forecasts, such as polls, models, or analyst estimates, are complementary tools. Because Polymarket traders are risking real capital, Weather odds aggregate many participants' information and incentives into a single probability, a mechanism that has historically tracked real-world outcomes closely in domains like Elections, Economy, and Geopolitics. That said, no market is a guarantee; odds represent trader consensus at a point in time, not a prediction of what will happen.

How do I start trading Weather markets on Polymarket?

You can browse the Weather page to see active markets, open any market such as "Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?" to view its order book and full rules, and then trade Yes or No shares once your account is funded. The left-side navigation makes it easy to drill into subcategories like Temperature or Earthquakes to focus on the topics you follow most closely.

What moves Weather prediction market prices?

Weather markets are driven by the same catalysts that move the underlying real-world story: official announcements, scheduled events and deadlines, data and reporting, and major news. For a market like "Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?", watch for upcoming dates, related Weather releases, and shifts in the broader Temperature and Earthquakes markets, all of which can change the implied probability traders assign to each outcome.

Where can I see live Weather odds and trading volume?

Every market card on Weather pages displays the current implied probability for each outcome along with 24-hour or cumulative trading volume. For deeper detail, including price history, the order book, and full resolution rules, click into any individual market such as "Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?" or "Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?".

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