2026 Midterms Election Odds & Predictions
Updated Jun 10, 2026 8:00 PM ET
2026 Midterm Election Odds & Predictions
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2026
Midterm Election
Updated Jun 10, 2026 8:00 PM ET
Odds & Predictions
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Midterm Election
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Odds & Predictions
-1% (7d)$3M vol
55% chance Republicanskeep the Senate
55% chance Republicans keep the Senate
-1% past 7d ·$3M vol
49 REPUBLICAN SENATE SEATS REPUBLICANS51 DEMOCRAT SENATE SEATS DEMOCRATS
+0% (7d)$7M vol
82% chance Democratstake the House
82% chance Democrats take the House
+0% past 7d ·$7M vol
203 REPUBLICAN HOUSE SEATS REPUBLICANS232 DEMOCRAT HOUSE SEATS DEMOCRATS
Senate 35
35 of 100 seats are up for election
House 435
435 seats are up for election
Governor 36
36 of 50 seats are up for election
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss up
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
No race
No seats up for election
Toss up
Lean D
Likely D
Safe D
No race
No seats up for election
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
Referendums
top issue markets
$3M Vol\ \ Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?\ \ 61% chance no\ \ +1.5%\ \ Trade $6.1K Vol\ \ Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?\ \ 73% chance no\ \ -9.5%\ \ Trade NEW\ \ Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?\ \ 88% chance no\ \ -3.0%\ \ Trade NEW\ \ Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?\ \ 93% chance yes\ \ -0.1%\ \ Trade
Summary Alongside candidate races, the 2026 midterm cycle will feature ballot measures and referendums that give voters a direct say on policy issues ranging... Read more
Biggest races
most pivotal markets
$1M Vol\ \ AK Governor\ \ 58% Republican\ \ -2%\ \ Trade $490K Vol\ \ TX Senate\ \ 50% Democrat\ \ +0%\ \ Trade $484K Vol\ \ ME Senate\ \ 65% Democrat\ \ +3%\ \ Trade $337K Vol\ \ AK Senate\ \ 60% Democrat\ \ +1%\ \ Trade $121K Vol\ \ IA Senate\ \ 59% Republican\ \ +0%\ \ Trade $100K Vol\ \ OH Governor\ \ 54% Republican\ \ -0%\ \ Trade
$1M Vol\ \ AK Governor\ \ 58% Republican\ \ -2%\ \ Trade
$490K Vol\ \ TX Senate\ \ 50% Democrat\ \ +0%\ \ Trade
$484K Vol\ \ ME Senate\ \ 65% Democrat\ \ +3%\ \ Trade
19 more
Summary The most competitive and highest-volume races across all chambers. These toss-up and lean races are the battleground contests that will determine cont... Read more
18 more
All races
519 markets
SenateHouseGovernor
All statesAll partiesAll tiersVolume
Race
State
Chance
Fav
Tier
Vol7D
TX Senate
Texas
50% DEM
DEM
Toss up
$490K
+0.0%
ME Senate
Maine
66% DEM
DEM
Lean Dem
$484K
+2.5%
AK Senate
Alaska
61% DEM
DEM
Lean Dem
$337K
+1.0%
NE Senate
Nebraska
96% REP
REP
Safe Rep
$133K
+0.0%
IA Senate
Iowa
60% REP
REP
Lean Rep
$121K
+0.0%
MI Senate
Michigan
72% DEM
DEM
Likely Dem
$117K
+1.0%
OH Senate
Ohio
50% DEM
DEM
Toss up
$88.6K
+0.0%
MT Senate
Montana
97% REP
REP
Safe Rep
$78.2K
+0.4%
NC Senate
North Carolina
50% DEM
DEM
Toss up
$66.6K
+0.0%
FL Senate
Florida
81% REP
REP
Likely Rep
$40.8K
+0.5%
CO Senate
Colorado
92% DEM
DEM
Safe Dem
$35.4K
+0.0%
SC Senate
South Carolina
81% REP
REP
Likely Rep
$34.5K
+1.0%
KS Senate
Kansas
81% REP
REP
Likely Rep
$29.8K
+0.0%
NH Senate
New Hampshire
85% DEM
DEM
Safe Dem
$28.0K
+2.0%
GA Senate
Georgia
84% DEM
DEM
Likely Dem
$28.0K
-0.5%
MS Senate
Mississippi
87% REP
REP
Safe Rep
$25.6K
-2.0%
IL Senate
Illinois
50% DEM
DEM
Toss up
$25.6K
+0.0%
MN Senate
Minnesota
90% DEM
DEM
Safe Dem
$25.2K
+0.0%
TN Senate
Tennessee
97% REP
REP
Safe Rep
$20.2K
-0.4%
NJ Senate
New Jersey
95% DEM
DEM
Safe Dem
$18.0K
+0.0%
ID Senate
Idaho
93% REP
REP
Safe Rep
$17.5K
+0.0%
NM Senate
New Mexico
97% DEM
DEM
Safe Dem
$17.1K
-0.1%
OK Senate
Oklahoma
93% REP
REP
Safe Rep
$14.6K
+0.0%
MA Senate
Massachusetts
96% DEM
DEM
Safe Dem
$13.2K
+0.0%
DE Senate
Delaware
94% DEM
DEM
Safe Dem
$12.5K
+0.0%
Showing 25 of 50 marketsLoad more
Midterms 2026 odds
2026 Midterm Election Odds — Live Prediction Market Odds
California Governor Election Winner Xavier Becerra\ 88% Steve Hilton\ 8%
Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich\ 31% Bernadette Wilson\ 25% Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins\ 16% Bill Walker\ 9% Treg Taylor\ 8% David Bronson\ 5% Click Bishop\ 3% Shelley Hughes\ 1% Hank Kroll\ 1% Matt Claman\ 1% Nancy Dahlstrom\ 1%
Texas Senate Election Winner Ken Paxton (R)\ 57% James Talarico (D)\ 42%
Maine Senate Election Winner Democrat\ 67% Republican\ 35%
NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner Micah Lasher\ 54% Alex Bores\ 40% Jack Schlossberg\ 7% George Conway\ 1%
KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory Gallrein 9%+\ 99% Gallrein 6-9%\ 1%
NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner Claire Valdez\ 76% Antonio Reynoso\ 25%
Iowa Senate Election Winner Republican\ 60% Democrat\ 41%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Democrat\ 71% Republican\ 28%
Ohio Governor Election Winner Republican\ 54% Democrat\ 46%
Ohio Senate Election Winner Sherrod Brown (D)\ 56% Jon Husted (R)\ 44%
Montana Senate Election Winner Republican\ 74% Independent\ 22% Democrat\ 2%
NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner Cait Conley\ 72% Beth Davidson\ 27% Effie Phillips-Staley\ 1%
North Carolina Senate Election Winner Roy Cooper (D)\ 86% Michael Whatley (R)\ 16%
Minnesota Governor Election Winner Democrat\ 94% Republican\ 4%
OK-01 Republican Primary Winner Jackson Lahmeyer\ 77% Mark Tedford\ 21% Kim David\ 4% Dan Rooney\ 1%
MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner Eric Chung\ 51% Christina Hines\ 37% Tim Greimel\ 18%
CA-04 Primary Winners Mike Thompson\ 100% Eric Jones\ 82% Sharon Brown\ 4% Mandy Ghusar\ 1% Laurie MacKenzie\ 1% John Wesley Tyler\ 1%
UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner Ben McAdams\ 89% Nate Blouin\ 11% Liban Mohamed\ 2%
NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner Ritchie Torres\ 98% Michael Blake\ 2% Dalourny Nemorin\ 1%
Florida Senate Election Winner Republican\ 81% Democrat\ 19%
NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner Darializa Avila Chevalier\ 49% Adriano Espaillat\ 47%
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Republican\ 81% Democrat\ 20%
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner Democrat\ 84% Republican\ 14%
Georgia Senate Election Winner Democrat\ 85% Republican\ 16%
Mississippi Senate Election Winner Republican\ 87% Democrat\ 14%
Nevada Governor Election Winner Democrat\ 51% Republican\ 50%
ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner Joe Baldacci\ 64% Matthew Dunlap\ 37% Jordan Wood\ 9%
Tennessee Senate Election Winner Republican\ 92% Democrat\ 3%
Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner Democrat\ 93% Republican\ 7%
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner Bridget Brink\ 84% William Lawrence\ 13% Matt Maasdam\ 6% Josh Cowen\ 2% Elyon Badger\ 2% Alexandra Prieditis\ 1%
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner Wesley Bell\ 60% Cori Bush\ 39%
NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner Hakeem Jeffries\ 96% Chi Ossé\ 1%
South Dakota Governor Election Winner Republican\ 90% Democrat\ 13%
Louisiana Senate Election Winner Republican\ 89% Democrat\ 11%
TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner Justin Pearson\ 83% DeVante Hill\ 11% Steve Cohen\ 3%
VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner Elaine Luria\ 97% James Osyf\ 2% Matt Strickler\ 1% Burk Stringfellow\ 1% Nila Devanath\ 1%
CO-01 Democratic Primary Winner Diana DeGette\ 54% Melat Kiros\ 43% Santiago Palomino\ 1%
Kentucky Senate Election Winner Andy Barr (R)\ 87% Charles Booker (D)\ 7%
Virginia Senate Election Winner Democrat\ 93% Republican\ 6%
CO-03 Republican Primary Winner Jeff Hurd\ 98% Hope Scheppelman\ 1%
FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner Elijah Manley\ 53% Debbie Wasserman Schultz\ 43% Dale Holness\ 8% Maisha Williams\ 5% Luther Campbell\ 4% Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick\ 2% Rudy Moise\ 1%
South Dakota Senate Election Winner Republican\ 92% Democrat\ 9%
NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner Grace Meng\ 96% Charles Park\ 4% Yan Xiong\ 1%
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner Chris Stigall\ 69% Nathan Willett\ 17% Gena Ross\ 6% James Ingram\ 5% Cody Oshel\ 5% Nathanael Schultz\ 5%
Illinois Governor Election Winner Democrat\ 92% Republican\ 8%
NY-21 Republican Primary Winner Anthony Constantino\ 80% Robert Smullen\ 19%
MD-04 Democratic Primary Winner Glenn Ivey\ 83% Joseph Gomes\ 31% Jakeya Johnson\ 31% Shavonne Hedgepeth\ 17% Jonathan White\ 17%
MD-03 Democratic Primary Winner Sarah Elfreth\ 97% Jennifer Cross\ 35% Austin Dyches\ 35% Sean Hammond\ 34% Robert Morrison\ 33%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes\ 40%
See more
About the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections
The 2026 United States midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, and will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress alongside a broad range of state and local offices. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senate seats, 36 gubernatorial positions across U.S. states, and numerous state legislative, executive, and local races will appear on ballots nationwide. These are the first national midterms to take place during a non-consecutive presidential second term since 1894, as President Donald Trump returns to office following the Republi...Read more
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