# Fed predictions & odds

## Fed Decision in June?

- **Volume:** $88M  
- **Today:** $4M  
- **Liquidity:** $4M  
- **Ends in:** 4 days  
- **Probability:** 99% No change

## How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

- **Volume:** $34M  
- **Today:** $386K  
- **Liquidity:** $2M  
- **Ends in:** 7 months  
- **Probability:** 78%  
- **Outcome:** 0 (0 bps)

## Fed Decision in July?

- **Volume:** $9M  
- **Today:** $83.2K  
- **Liquidity:** $825K  
- **Ends in:** about 2 months  
- **Probability:** 93% No change

## Fed rate hike in 2026?

- **Volume:** $2M  
- **Today:** $61.0K  
- **Liquidity:** $99.0K  
- **Ends in:** 6 months  
- **Probability:** 42%

## Fed Decision in September?

- **Volume:** $273K  
- **Liquidity:** $368K  
- **Ends in:** 3 months  
- **Probability:** 74% No change

## Fed rate cut by...?

- **Volume:** $2M  
- **Liquidity:** $198K  
- **Ends in:** 4 days  
- **Probability:** 21% December Meeting

## Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

- **Volume:** $2M  
- **Liquidity:** $156K  
- **Ends in:** 4 days  
- **Probability:** 99% Pause–Pause–Pause

## What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

- **Volume:** $7M  
- **Liquidity:** $165K  
- **Ends in:** 6 months  
- **Probability:** 33%  
- **Outcome:** 4.0%

## Fed rate hike by...?

- **Volume:** $163K  
- **Liquidity:** $80.7K  
- **Ends in:** 5 months  
- **Probability:** 40% October Meeting

## Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

- **Volume:** $433K  
- **Liquidity:** $56.3K  
- **Ends in:** 1%

## How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

- **Volume:** $33.0K  
- **Liquidity:** $25.6K  
- **Ends in:** 4 days  
- **Probability:** 66% 0

## What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

- **Volume:** $2M  
- **Liquidity:** $119K  
- **Ends in:** 7 months  
- **Probability:** 21% ↓ 3.25%

## Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

- **Volume:** $278K  
- **Liquidity:** $9.4K  
- **Ends in:** 17 days  
- **Probability:** <1%

## What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?

- **Volume:** $16.8K  
- **Liquidity:** $31.3K  
- **Ends in:** 5 days  
- **Probability:** 80% Chair

## Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

- **Volume:** $2.4K  
- **Liquidity:** $72.5K  
- **Ends in:** 3 months  
- **Probability:** 72% Pause–Pause–Pause

## Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

- **Volume:** $54.3K  
- **Liquidity:** $44.9K  
- **Ends in:** about 2 months  
- **Probability:** 92% Pause–Pause–Pause

## Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

- **Volume:** $106K  
- **Liquidity:** $3.5K  
- **Ends in:** 7 months  
- **Probability:** 10%

## Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

- **Volume:** $418K  
- **Liquidity:** $3.6K  
- **Ends in:** 7 months  
- **Probability:** 40% December 31

## Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

- **Volume:** $4.1K  
- **Liquidity:** $2.6K  
- **Ends in:** 7 months  
- **Probability:** 3%

## Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by…?

- **Volume:** $16.5K  
- **Liquidity:** $8.1K  
- **Ends in:** 7 months  
- **Probability:** 22% December 31