Fed predictions & odds

Fed Decision in June?

  • Volume: $88M
  • Today: $4M
  • Liquidity: $4M
  • Ends in: 4 days
  • Probability: 99% No change

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

  • Volume: $34M
  • Today: $386K
  • Liquidity: $2M
  • Ends in: 7 months
  • Probability: 78%
  • Outcome: 0 (0 bps)

Fed Decision in July?

  • Volume: $9M
  • Today: $83.2K
  • Liquidity: $825K
  • Ends in: about 2 months
  • Probability: 93% No change

Fed rate hike in 2026?

  • Volume: $2M
  • Today: $61.0K
  • Liquidity: $99.0K
  • Ends in: 6 months
  • Probability: 42%

Fed Decision in September?

  • Volume: $273K
  • Liquidity: $368K
  • Ends in: 3 months
  • Probability: 74% No change

Fed rate cut by...?

  • Volume: $2M
  • Liquidity: $198K
  • Ends in: 4 days
  • Probability: 21% December Meeting

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

  • Volume: $2M
  • Liquidity: $156K
  • Ends in: 4 days
  • Probability: 99% Pause–Pause–Pause

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

  • Volume: $7M
  • Liquidity: $165K
  • Ends in: 6 months
  • Probability: 33%
  • Outcome: 4.0%

Fed rate hike by...?

  • Volume: $163K
  • Liquidity: $80.7K
  • Ends in: 5 months
  • Probability: 40% October Meeting

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

  • Volume: $433K
  • Liquidity: $56.3K
  • Ends in: 1%

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

  • Volume: $33.0K
  • Liquidity: $25.6K
  • Ends in: 4 days
  • Probability: 66% 0

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

  • Volume: $2M
  • Liquidity: $119K
  • Ends in: 7 months
  • Probability: 21% ↓ 3.25%

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

  • Volume: $278K
  • Liquidity: $9.4K
  • Ends in: 17 days
  • Probability: <1%

What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?

  • Volume: $16.8K
  • Liquidity: $31.3K
  • Ends in: 5 days
  • Probability: 80% Chair

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

  • Volume: $2.4K
  • Liquidity: $72.5K
  • Ends in: 3 months
  • Probability: 72% Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

  • Volume: $54.3K
  • Liquidity: $44.9K
  • Ends in: about 2 months
  • Probability: 92% Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

  • Volume: $106K
  • Liquidity: $3.5K
  • Ends in: 7 months
  • Probability: 10%

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

  • Volume: $418K
  • Liquidity: $3.6K
  • Ends in: 7 months
  • Probability: 40% December 31

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

  • Volume: $4.1K
  • Liquidity: $2.6K
  • Ends in: 7 months
  • Probability: 3%

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by…?

  • Volume: $16.5K
  • Liquidity: $8.1K
  • Ends in: 7 months
  • Probability: 22% December 31