World Cup Winner
| Team | Volume | Probability | Buy Yes | Buy No |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | $40,981,754 | 16% | 16.5¢ | 83.6¢ |
| France | $47,157,958 | 16% | 16.1¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Portugal | $43,132,609 | 11% | 10.8¢ | 89.3¢ |
| England | $35,387,427 | 10% | 9.7¢ | 90.4¢ |
| Brazil | $37,190,628 | 8% | 8.4¢ | 91.7¢ |
| Argentina | $38,605,676 | 8% | 7.9¢ | 92.2¢ |
| Germany | $40,024,004 | 5% | 5.2¢ | 94.9¢ |
| Netherlands | $43,269,440 | 5% | 4.6¢ | 95.5¢ |
| Norway | $43,607,992 | 2% | 2.5¢ | 97.6¢ |
| Japan | $46,029,122 | 2% | 2.2¢ | 97.9¢ |
| Belgium | $45,238,543 | 2% | 2.1¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Colombia | $45,413,282 | 2% | 1.8¢ | 98.3¢ |
| Morocco | $47,778,980 | 2% | 1.6¢ | 98.5¢ |
| Switzerland | $43,028,556 | 1% | 1.4¢ | 98.7¢ |
| Mexico | $50,041,755 | 1% | 1.4¢ | 98.7¢ |
| USA | $60,097,242 | 1% | 1.2¢ | 98.9¢ |
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
Spain and France lead trader consensus at 16.4% and 16.1% due to their elite squad depth, consistent recent results, and top FIFA rankings entering the expanded 2026 World Cup. Spain's Euro 2024 title and strong qualifying campaign underpin their slight edge, while France maintains near-top positioning through reliable performances and a deep roster featuring world-class talent. Portugal, England, Brazil, and Argentina sit closely behind, supported by experienced players like Ronaldo, Bellingham, Kane, and Messi alongside solid recent form. This tight grouping stems from multiple high-caliber European sides with comparable head-to-head records, home/away strengths in qualifiers, and minimal separation in power rankings, keeping implied probabilities bunched as the tournament nears.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET Volume: $2,143,281,436 End Date: Jul 20, 2026 Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the "World Cup Winner" prediction market?
"World Cup Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 50+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Spain" at 16%, followed by "France" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
How much trading activity has "World Cup Winner" generated on Polymarket?
As of today, "World Cup Winner" has generated $2.1 billion in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants.