Election Odds
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Trade on US Midterms](https://polymarket.com/predictions/midterms)
Global Elections 45
Armenia 1 Brazil 23 Bulgaria 1 Canada 5 Colombia 4 Ethiopia 2 France 6 Germany 5 Israel 2 Italy 2 Latvia 1 New Zealand 10 Nigeria 1 Peru 5 Romania 2 Russia 6 South Africa 1 Sweden 5 Taiwan 1 United Kingdom 4 United States of America 11 Zambia 2
\ \ Trade on US Midterms](https://polymarket.com/predictions/midterms)
\ \ Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?\ \ Jun 1](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia)
\ \ Abiy Ahmed\ \ 99%](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia/will-abiy-ahmed-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia) \ \ Adanech Abiebie\ \ 1%](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia/will-adanech-abiebie-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia)
$27.9KVol·6 more
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\ \ Nigerian Presidential Election Winner\ \ TBD](https://polymarket.com/event/nigerian-presidential-election-winner-20260602162945585)
\ \ Bola Tinubu\ \ 70%](https://polymarket.com/event/nigerian-presidential-election-winner-20260602162945585/will-bola-tinubu-win-the-2027-nigerian-presidential-election-20260602163030949) \ \ Peter Obi\ \ 24%](https://polymarket.com/event/nigerian-presidential-election-winner-20260602162945585/will-peter-obi-win-the-2027-nigerian-presidential-election-20260602163030948)
$30.8KVol·3 more
\ \ Peru Presidential Election Winner\ \ Jun 7](https://polymarket.com/event/peru-presidential-election-winner)
\ \ Keiko Fujimori\ \ 97%](https://polymarket.com/event/peru-presidential-election-winner/will-keiko-fujimori-win-the-2026-peruvian-presidential-election) \ \ Roberto Sánchez Palomino\ \ 2%](https://polymarket.com/event/peru-presidential-election-winner/will-roberto-snchez-palomino-win-the-2026-peruvian-presidential-election)
$100MVol·21 more
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\ \ Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner\ \ Jun 7](https://polymarket.com/event/armenia-parliamentary-election-winner)
\ \ Civil Contract\ \ 99%](https://polymarket.com/event/armenia-parliamentary-election-winner/will-civil-contract-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-armenian-national-assembly-election) \ \ Strong Armenia\ \ <1%](https://polymarket.com/event/armenia-parliamentary-election-winner/will-strong-armenia-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-armenian-national-assembly-election)
$1MVol·8 more
\ \ Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?\ \ TBD](https://polymarket.com/event/peru-presidential-election-invalidated-20260608171643979)
$1.7KVol
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\ \ Makerfield by-election Winner\ \ Jun 18](https://polymarket.com/event/makerfield-by-election-winner)
Andy Burnham\ \ 75% Robert Kenyon\ \ 26%
$4MVol·5 more
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\ \ Next Prime Minister of Romania?\ \ Jun 30](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-romania-732)
\ \ Alexandru Nazare\ \ 19%](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-romania-732/will-alexandru-nazare-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-romania) \ \ Radu Burnete\ \ 12%](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-romania-732/will-radu-burnete-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-romania)
$2MVol·32 more
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\ \ Zambia Presidential Election Winner\ \ Aug 13](https://polymarket.com/event/zambia-presidential-election-winner-20260604205247322)
\ \ Hakainde Hichilema\ \ 79%](https://polymarket.com/event/zambia-presidential-election-winner-20260604205247322/will-hakainde-hichilema-win-the-2026-zambian-presidential-elections-20260604205342549) \ \ Brian Mundubile\ \ 14%](https://polymarket.com/event/zambia-presidential-election-winner-20260604205247322/will-brian-mundubile-win-the-2026-zambian-presidential-elections-20260604205342550)
$20.7KVol·1 more
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\ \ Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner\ \ Sep 13](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-winner)
\ \ Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)\ \ 91%](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-winner/will-the-swedish-social-democratic-party-s-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-swedish-parliamentary-election) \ \ Sweden Democrats (SD)\ \ 3%](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-winner/will-the-sweden-democrats-sd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-swedish-parliamentary-election)
$1MVol·7 more
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\ \ Next Prime Minister of Sweden\ \ Sep 13](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-sweden)
\ \ Magdalena Andersson\ \ 75%](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-sweden/will-magdalena-andersson-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-sweden) \ \ Ulf Kristersson\ \ 23%](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-sweden/will-ulf-kristersson-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-sweden)
$2MVol·8 more
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\ \ Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place\ \ Sep 13](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-2nd-place)
\ \ Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)\ \ 6%](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-2nd-place/will-the-swedish-social-democratic-party-s-win-the-second-most-seats-in-the-2026-swedish-parliamentary-election) \ \ Sweden Democrats (SD)\ \ 51%](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-2nd-place/will-the-sweden-democrats-sd-win-the-second-most-seats-in-the-2026-swedish-parliamentary-election)
$4.1KVol·7 more
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\ \ Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place\ \ Sep 13](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-3rd-place)
\ \ Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)\ \ 3%](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-3rd-place/will-the-swedish-social-democratic-party-s-win-the-third-most-seats-in-the-2026-swedish-parliamentary-election) \ \ Sweden Democrats (SD)\ \ 33%](https://polymarket.com/event/sweden-parliamentary-election-3rd-place/will-the-sweden-democrats-sd-win-the-third-most-seats-in-the-2026-swedish-parliamentary-election)
$5.0KVol·7 more
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\ \ Russia Parliamentary Election Winner\ \ Sep 20](https://polymarket.com/event/russia-parliamentary-election-winner)
\ \ United Russia (ER)\ \ 96%](https://polymarket.com/event/russia-parliamentary-election-winner/will-united-russia-er-win-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election) \ \ New People (NL)\ \ 2%](https://polymarket.com/event/russia-parliamentary-election-winner/will-new-people-nl-win-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election)
$2MVol·5 more
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\ \ Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner\ \ Sep 20](https://polymarket.com/event/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner)
\ \ AfD\ \ 87%](https://polymarket.com/event/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-elections) \ \ SPD\ \ 13%](https://polymarket.com/event/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner/will-spd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-elections)
$239KVol·6 more
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\ \ Berlin State Election Winner\ \ Sep 20](https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-winner)
\ \ CDU\ \ 31%](https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-winner/will-cdu-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-berlin-state-elections) \ \ Linke\ \ 26%](https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-winner/will-linke-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-berlin-state-elections)
$3MVol·6 more
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\ \ Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner\ \ Oct 3](https://polymarket.com/event/latvian-parliamentary-election-winner)
$87.7KVol·7 more
\ \ Brazil Presidential Election\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election)
\ \ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva\ \ 48%](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election) \ \ Flávio Bolsonaro\ \ 26%](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election/will-flvio-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election)
$99MVol·15 more
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\ \ Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner)
\ \ Cleitinho Azevedo\ \ 67%](https://polymarket.com/event/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner/will-cleitinho-azevedo-win-the-2026-minas-gerais-gubernatorial-election) \ \ Alexandre Kalil\ \ 9%](https://polymarket.com/event/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner/will-alexandre-kalil-win-the-2026-minas-gerais-gubernatorial-election)
$58.5KVol·8 more
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\ \ Ceará Governor Election Winner\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/cear-governor-election-winner)
\ \ Ciro Gomes\ \ 65%](https://polymarket.com/event/cear-governor-election-winner/will-ciro-gomes-win-the-2026-cear-gubernatorial-election) \ \ Elmano de Freitas\ \ 28%](https://polymarket.com/event/cear-governor-election-winner/will-elmano-de-freitas-win-the-2026-cear-gubernatorial-election)
$63.1KVol·4 more
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\ \ Bahia Governor Election Winner\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/bahia-governor-election-winner)
\ \ Jerônimo Rodrigues\ \ 63%](https://polymarket.com/event/bahia-governor-election-winner/will-jernimo-rodrigues-win-the-2026-bahia-gubernatorial-election) \ \ ACM Neto\ \ 37%](https://polymarket.com/event/bahia-governor-election-winner/will-acm-neto-win-the-2026-bahia-gubernatorial-election)
$26.8KVol·5 more
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\ \ Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-chamber-of-deputies-election-winner)
\ \ PL\ \ 89%](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-chamber-of-deputies-election-winner/will-partido-liberal-pl-hold-the-most-seats-in-the-brazilian-chamber-of-deputies-after-the-2026-election) \ \ MISSÃO\ \ 6%](https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-chamber-of-deputies-election-winner/will-partido-misso-misso-hold-the-most-seats-in-the-brazilian-chamber-of-deputies-after-the-2026-election)
$15.4KVol·13 more
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\ \ São Paulo Governor Election Winner\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/so-paulo-governor-election-winner)
\ \ Tarcísio de Freitas\ \ 84%](https://polymarket.com/event/so-paulo-governor-election-winner/will-tarcsio-de-freitas-win-the-2026-so-paulo-gubernatorial-election) \ \ Kim Kataguiri\ \ 11%](https://polymarket.com/event/so-paulo-governor-election-winner/will-kim-kataguiri-win-the-2026-so-paulo-gubernatorial-election)
$75.2KVol·3 more
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\ \ Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/rio-grande-do-sul-governor-election-winner)
Juliana Brizola\ \ 44% Luciano Zucco\ \ 40%
$63.0KVol·3 more
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\ \ Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/rio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176)
Anthony Garotinho\ \ 44% André Ceciliano\ \ 26%
$1.1KVol·10 more
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\ \ Paraíba Governor Election Winner\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/paraiba-governor-election-winner-20260611183326566)
Cícero Lucena\ \ 65% Nilvan Ferreira\ \ 32%
$432Vol·5 more
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\ \ Maranhão Governor Election Winner\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/maranhao-governor-election-winner-20260611182113297)
Eduardo Braide\ \ 67% Lahesio Bonfim\ \ 33%
$324Vol·4 more
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\ \ Paraná Governor Election Winner\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343)
Sergio Moro\ \ 80% Alexandre Curi\ \ 16%
$1.2KVol·5 more
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\ \ Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner \ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/santa-catarina-governor-election-winner-20260609164309743)
Jorginho Mello\ \ 82% Marcos Vieira\ \ 24%
$2.4KVol·6 more
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\ \ Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner \ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/espirito-santo-governor-election-winner-20260611183840001)
Ricardo Ferraço\ \ 53% Sergio Vidigal\ \ 38%
$50Vol·3 more
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\ \ Goiás Governor Election Winner\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/goias-governor-election-winner-20260609165823163)
Daniel Vilela\ \ 45% Vanderlan Cardoso\ \ 41%
$300Vol·3 more
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\ \ Pará Governor Election Winner\ \ Oct 4](https://polymarket.com/event/para-governor-election-winner-20260609154623298)
Hana Ghassan\ \ 40% Dr. Daniel Santos\ \ 39%
$1.8KVol·5 more
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\ \ Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner\ \ Oct 17](https://polymarket.com/event/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner)
\ \ Kareem Allam\ \ 55%](https://polymarket.com/event/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner/will-kareem-allam-win-the-2026-vancouver-mayoral-election) \ \ Ken Sim\ \ 28%](https://polymarket.com/event/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner/will-ken-sim-win-the-2026-vancouver-mayoral-election)
$82.1KVol·10 more
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\ \ Toronto Mayoral Election Winner\ \ Oct 26](https://polymarket.com/event/toronto-mayoral-election-winner-545)
\ \ Olivia Chow\ \ 82%](https://polymarket.com/event/toronto-mayoral-election-winner-545/will-olivia-chow-win-the-2026-toronto-mayoral-election-465) \ \ Brad Bradford\ \ 18%](https://polymarket.com/event/toronto-mayoral-election-winner-545/will-brad-bradford-win-the-2026-toronto-mayoral-election-415)
$66.9KVol·6 more
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\ \ Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner\ \ Oct 26](https://polymarket.com/event/ottawa-mayoral-election-winner)
\ \ Mark Sutcliffe\ \ 77%](https://polymarket.com/event/ottawa-mayoral-election-winner/will-mark-sutcliffe-win-the-2026-ottawa-mayoral-election) \ \ Jeff Leiper\ \ 24%](https://polymarket.com/event/ottawa-mayoral-election-winner/will-jeff-leiper-win-the-2026-ottawa-mayoral-election)
$27.1KVol·3 more
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\ \ Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?\ \ Oct 27](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election)
Benjamin Netanyahu\ \ 37% Gadi Eizenkot\ \ 28%
$15MVol·16 more
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\ \ Israeli Legislative Election Winner\ \ Oct 27](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-legislative-election-winner)
\ \ Likud\ \ 32%](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-legislative-election-winner/will-likud-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-israeli-legislative-election) \ \ Together\ \ 25%](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-legislative-election-winner/will-together-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-israeli-legislative-election)
$16.9KVol·4 more
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\ \ Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms\ \ Nov 3](https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms)
Democrats Sweep\ \ 44% D Senate, R House\ \ 2%
$8MVol·3 more
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\ \ Which party will win the House in 2026?\ \ Nov 3](https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026)
\ \ Democratic Party\ \ 83%](https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026/will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections) \ \ Republican Party\ \ 19%](https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026/will-the-republican-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections)
$7MVol
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\ \ Which party will win the Senate in 2026?\ \ Nov 3](https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026)
\ \ Republican Party\ \ 56%](https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026/will-the-republican-party-control-the-senate-after-the-2026-midterm-elections) \ \ Democratic Party\ \ 44%](https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026/will-the-democratic-party-control-the-senate-after-the-2026-midterm-elections)
$3MVol
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\ \ New Zealand legislative election winner?\ \ Nov 7](https://polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner)
\ \ National Party\ \ 42%](https://polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner/will-national-party-win-the-most-seats-in-the-new-zealand-house-of-representatives-in-the-2026-new-zealand-legislative-election) \ \ Labour Party\ \ 60%](https://polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner/will-labour-party-win-the-most-seats-in-the-new-zealand-house-of-representatives-in-the-2026-new-zealand-legislative-election)
$4.2KVol·4 more
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\ \ Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?\ \ Nov 7](https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-part-of-the-next-government-of-new-zealand)
\ \ Labour Party\ \ 56%](https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-part-of-the-next-government-of-new-zealand/will-labour-party-be-part-of-the-next-government-of-new-zealand) \ \ Green Party\ \ 54%](https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-part-of-the-next-government-of-new-zealand/will-green-party-be-part-of-the-next-government-of-new-zealand)
$936Vol·4 more
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\ \ Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?\ \ Nov 7](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-new-zealand-174)
\ \ Christopher Luxon\ \ 48%](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-new-zealand-174/will-christopher-luxon-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-new-zealand-after-the-2026-elections-718) \ \ Chris Hipkins\ \ 42%](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-new-zealand-174/will-chris-hipkins-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-new-zealand-after-the-2026-elections-662)
$3.7KVol·5 more
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\ \ 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner\ \ Nov 28](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-taiwanese-local-elections-party-winner)
\ \ Kuomintang (KMT)\ \ 82%](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-taiwanese-local-elections-party-winner/will-kuomintang-kmt-win-the-most-head-of-local-government-elections-in-the-2026-taiwan-local-elections) \ \ Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)\ \ 19%](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-taiwanese-local-elections-party-winner/will-the-democratic-progressive-party-dpp-win-the-most-head-of-local-government-elections-in-the-2026-taiwan-local-elections)
$120KVol·1 more
\ \ Bulgaria Presidential Election\ \ Nov 30](https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election)
\ \ Iliana Iotova\ \ 52%](https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election/will-iliana-iotova-win-the-next-bulgarian-presidential-election) \ \ Blagomir Kotsev\ \ 16%](https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election/will-blagomir-kotsev-win-the-next-bulgarian-presidential-election)
$140KVol·11 more
\ \ Next French Presidential Election\ \ Apr 1](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election)
\ \ Jordan Bardella\ \ 27%](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-jordan-bardella-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) \ \ Édouard Philippe\ \ 22%](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-douard-philippe-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election)
$98MVol·34 more
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About Election Odds & Predictions
Election odds on Polymarket show real-time probabilities set by the market. Traders take positions on political and election outcomes around the world using real capital, and the resulting market prices become the odds.
The prediction markets on this page cover elections across the globe. Depending on the election cycle, that can include the U.S. presidential elections and midterm elections, UK general elections, and prime minister contests in parliamentary democracies. It can cover presidential races in Latin America, legislative votes in Europe, state elections in India, and even mayoral, municipal, or regional elections across Asia. In every active elections market, live trading combines the views of many traders into a single probability.
Reading the odds is simple. A candidate trading at 62 cents has roughly a 62% chance of winning. Prices update continuously as traders react to breaking news, new polls, debates, endorsements, coalition talks, and live vote counts.
How election odds are set
Unlike bookmaker-set fixed-odds prices, Polymarket's election odds are market-driven. Each contract is a simple yes/no question tied to an official, verifiable election winner. Examples include which party wins a battleground state like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, or Nevada. Or whether a Democratic Party figure such as Gavin Newsom or Pete Buttigieg secures a future nomination, or a Republican Party figure such as JD Vance, Ron DeSantis, or Secretary of State Marco Rubio becomes the next GOP standard-bearer. Other markets can cover closely watched races, such as contests in New York where traders price which candidate, party, or ballot outcome will prevail. Traders buy and sell outcome shares priced between 0 and 100 cents. The market price reflects the implied probability at that moment. Prices can move fast when major news breaks, such as a snap election being called, a candidate withdrawing, or a no-confidence vote toppling a sitting prime minister.
This setup is often called the "wisdom of crowds" with skin in the game. Traders with unhedged positions have money on the line, so they’re motivated to be right. Obvious mispricing tends to draw opposing trades, though liquidity, trader composition, and market limits can affect how fast prices correct. That self-correcting dynamic is what gives election markets their informational edge.
How election prediction markets can be more reliable than traditional polls
Traditional polls remain a valuable input, but they have built-in limits. Polls are snapshots, often several days old by the time they’re published. They also rely on sampling, weighting, and assumptions about likely voters and turnout that can introduce error. Recent U.S. presidential election cycles show how polling error can shape expectations in close Electoral College contests. In 2024, public polls again underestimated Donald Trump nationally and across major battleground states. States such as Iowa and New Jersey saw bigger polling misses too, with Trump outperforming final polling averages.
Polymarket's election prediction markets can address several of these weaknesses. First, markets run continuously rather than in periodic snapshots. Prices update as traders react to new polls, endorsements, court rulings, or diplomatic developments. Second, markets can aggregate more than polling data alone. Participants may weigh base rates, partisan lean, ground-level reporting, and historical precedent, such as the long-running Republican presidential lean of West Virginia or the Democratic presidential lean of New York. Third, traders are financially accountable. A trader who is wrong loses money. That incentive structure can reward accuracy and punish wishful thinking, especially in liquid markets.
A global view of election odds
This page brings together election odds from across the world. Coverage spans presidential elections, parliamentary contests, prime ministerial transitions, primaries, runoffs, and coalition outcomes. Markets can cover many electoral systems, from first-past-the-post races like a UK general election to proportional representation contests to multi-round runoffs to the U.S. midterms. In the midterms, every House district, roughly one-third of Senate seats, and most governorships, from swing states to traditional GOP strongholds, can reshape control of government. Whatever the format, the underlying logic is similar: prices reflect market-implied probabilities shaped by real trading activity.
For international observers, this global view is especially useful. It allows side-by-side comparison of how traders are pricing election-related uncertainty across countries. That includes a tight parliamentary majority in one country, the frontrunner in a presidential runoff in another, or the likely election winner in a closely watched regional contest. When election predictions diverge meaningfully from local polling aggregators, that gap itself can be informative.
How to use this page
You don’t need to trade to benefit from election odds. Visitors can use Polymarket as a live data source, watching probabilities shift in response to debates, endorsements, and breaking headlines. Journalists, analysts, and researchers can cite these markets as timestamped, capital-weighted indicators of trader sentiment. Prices, volume, trades, and other market data are all available for review.
Used thoughtfully, Polymarket's election predictions can offer a fast, transparent, market-driven view of how traders are pricing political and election outcomes in real time.
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FAQs
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like global elections.
What types of global elections prediction markets can I trade on Polymarket?
Polymarket currently hosts 45 active markets for global elections that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $345.1M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.
How do global elections markets work on Polymarket?
Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Peru Presidential Election Winner,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.
What is the current top global elections prediction?
As of today, the most active market is “Peru Presidential Election Winner,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 97% chance to Keiko Fujimori. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.
Why use Polymarket for global elections predictions?
It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on global elections predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.
How accurate are Polymarket’s global elections odds?
Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket’s accuracy.
Can I track global elections predictions without trading?
Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for global elections shift in real-time. It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “Peru Presidential Election Winner” without ever needing to place a trade.
How do I get started with global elections markets on Polymarket?
Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the global elections prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.
How are markets resolved?
Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?,” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.
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